Econometric models look at the economic benefits of something by using statistical analysis. This can be used in environmental policy and land use when determining the economic "worth" of an area. Although simply looking at something like deforestation can be useful in a model, putting a value (especially monetary) on an environmental process can really be more effective in today's society. The change that needs to occur to offset these changes is very economically and financially driven. As terrible as that is, it is the reality and therefor this must be taken into account when modeling environmental disturbances, activity, etc. The REDD (Reduces Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) model in Dinamica specifically looks at the horrifying problem of deforestation in one of the most problematic areas - the Amazon. Incorporating the econometric model in REDD is significant as I mentioned in offsetting the deforestation tragedy in the Amazon. Deforestation has huge effects on the economical benefits of the Amazon, especially those who utilize them for their livelihood. The model also have to take into account spatial lag regression and spatial neighborhood matrix. The neighborhood matrix simply looks at the variation that occurs within a given neighborhood such as demographics, economy, etc. The spatial lag looks at how the variables affect the use of the area over time and how that slows.
2001. 2011.
The two maps above show the landscape in 2001 and 2011 so you can see the change over 10 years.
2020.
This is the projected map in the year 2020.
Based on the maps above you can see there is an increase in the deforested area (light green color). This is seen the comparison over 10 years between 2001 and 2011, but in the projected map for 2020 it is even worse.
This graph shows the deforestation rate from the year 2001 until the projected year of 2020.
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