As it comes to a close...

I can't believe graduation is right around the corner. Three years flew by and I am going through the same roller coaster of emotions that I think most other graduating seniors are going through. Although I am thrilled to be done with piles of work and stress on a daily basis, the idea of entering the real world is terrifying. In the wake of the craziness of applying to grad school and full time jobs I have been trying to calm down and try and appreciate all I've gotten from UVM. I think sometimes we get caught up in our everyday lives and tend to forget everything college gives us and how it has changed us. I didn't really notice a change in myself as the years went on, but looking back now I realize what a huge impact this school and the Environmental Science program has shaped me as a person. I think if I had stayed in Rhode Island or went somewhere less invested in environmental awareness that I would be a very different person than I am today, and I am thankful that I chose to come here. I have learned so much here about being globally responsible, and I think I am a better human for it. So although I am leaving in a few months to enter the real world, wherever that may take me, I think I have built myself a strong foundation to be a successful person in the future. That is something I don't think I could have done as well without the help and support from my friends, teachers, and classes here at UVM. It is much more than learning about the names of trees or the principles of wildlife management. I can learn those things in a book, but the way things are taught in my classes and the culture here makes it a way of life. You get a much more well-rounded education because you're always learning because it's always in your face and it becomes a part of your day-to-day life. I only hope that once I am no longer at UVM and out of Vermont that I can keep the person I've become a part of my new, post-grad life. And if I can't I guess I'll just have to move to Vermont forever, which at this point doesn't sound like a bad idea. Thanks for a great run, UVM. I'll miss you.

Montreal & the Environment

This past weekend I went to Montreal and realized how different the environmental culture is from most of the places I've been in America. Despite being a large tourist city, their focus on the environmental and being sustainable was fairly obvious, at least for me. The hostel I stayed at was very keen on recycling and composting as well as being very energy efficient. There were a lot of plants everywhere too. I asked the owner a bit about it and she said it was to keep the air as clean as possible, especially with so many people under one roof. They were also very good about their laundry. They washed everything on cold and air dried the sheets and things whenever weather permitted. Outside of the hostel were tons of bikers and walkers. Sure, there were a lot of cars too but from what I could tell most people in cars were tourists or those trying to get much longer distances. Many of the restaurants and cafes I went to also made an effort to recycle or compost. What was most interesting was that I happened to go on the weekend before Earth Day. There was a huge rally/walk, something I was actually able to take part in the year before as well. Both times the crowds were enormous. Interestingly enough the demographics of those in attendance was not just young activists. There were people of all ages, and it seemed the most passionate were the older folks. It really made me think that this environmental awareness is something that is a large part of their culture because I have never seen such a large gathering for an Earth Day event, even here at UVM where we pride ourselves on things like that. I think that might have been a part of why I was so impressed with the environmental culture in Montreal. As a UVMer and proud environmentalist I think sometimes myself and others here get caught up in thinking were the only ones who try to live sustainabley or that we do it the best. That could be our pride getting in the way or the depressive attitude that often comes with thinking about all of the Earth's problems. But the reality is that many others are doing it all over the world and it gave me some hope because it is good to know that there are changes happening globally, and that humans are capable of doing good for the world. It's just a matter of opening our eyes.

Lesson 8

Econometric models look at the economic benefits of something by using statistical analysis. This can be used in environmental policy and land use when determining the economic "worth" of an area. Although simply looking at something like deforestation can be useful in a model, putting a value (especially monetary) on an environmental process can really be more effective in today's society.  The change that needs to occur to offset these changes is very economically and financially driven. As terrible as that is, it is the reality and therefor this must be taken into account when modeling environmental disturbances, activity, etc. The REDD (Reduces Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) model in Dinamica specifically looks at the horrifying problem of deforestation in one of the most problematic areas - the Amazon. Incorporating the econometric model in REDD is significant as I mentioned in offsetting the deforestation tragedy in the Amazon. Deforestation has huge effects on the economical benefits of the Amazon, especially those who utilize them for their livelihood. The model also have to take into account spatial lag regression and spatial neighborhood matrix. The neighborhood matrix simply looks at the variation that occurs within a given neighborhood such as demographics, economy, etc. The spatial lag looks at how the variables affect the use of the area over time and how that slows.

          2001.                                                            2011. 

The two maps above show the landscape in 2001 and 2011 so you can see the change over 10 years. 



2020.

This is the projected map in the year 2020.

Based on the maps above you can see there is an increase in the deforested area (light green color). This is seen the comparison over 10 years between 2001 and 2011, but in the projected map for 2020 it is even worse. 

This graph shows the deforestation rate from the year 2001 until the projected year of 2020. 

Project Update

After meeting with Professor Galford last week I feel a lot better about this project. The hardest part for me is going to be getting the data and manipulating it for use in Dinamica. I have been in contact with Joe Roman to get some data on sharks but so far I don't have anything. I plan on contacting Ellen Marsden, who is the professor for two of my other courses and hopefully she will be able to help me access some data on sharks, whales, or some kind of marine fish. Once I get that data I will probably have to do some work in Excel and ArcMap to make it something useable. I also discussed converting the data into some equations to be used in a Calculate Map functor in my model. I'm hoping to build a model with 2-3 input maps, a calculate map functor containing name maps for each of these load maps, and then a save map. It shouldn't have to be too complicated, which would be ideal since the work with the data should be enough trouble on its own. Then I will have to do some kind of comparison. I have no quite worked out how I'm going to do that, but Prof. Galford and I discussed splitting up the data points I use in my model, and only using a select portion so that I can compare my output to the other data points I did not use. Not quite the exact same way we did the comparison of landuse a few lessons back, but I guess with different data you must utilize different methods of analysis. Still, this will all kind of depend on the amount and quality of the data I get. So that's kind of where I am, I have a strong grip on what I want to do and how I think I'm going to do it. However the most challenging part is what I must tackle next: THE DATA. I think I will definitely have to meet with Galford again and likely with Joe Roman, Ellen Marsden, and whoever else could help me figure out where to get it, how to manipulate it, and how to use it.