Metamodels and the Tasmanian Tiger

I'm a pretty big fan of Science Daily, it's a website I peruse rather frequently and yesterday I came across an article posted that day about a new development in a species extinction. The species in question is the Thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), or often referred to as the "Tasmanian Tiger".

Tasmanian Tigers at Beaumaris Zoo, Hobart c 1918.

(Credit: Image courtesy of University of Adelaide,

reproduced with permission from the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery)

Prior to the European settlement of Tasmania in the early 1800's this beautiful creature was abundant on the island. By the beginning of the 20th Century numbers dwindled drastically due to a bounty placed on the animal, so much so that in 1933 the last wild Thylacine was captured. 

Now, not that this is not a devastating story, as is all stories of extinction, but that is not what struck me about this article. The bulk of this article focuses on the work being done at the University of Adelaide where a study was conducted to essentially prove the cause of the animals extinction. As you can imagine the study proved that humans were the cause of this tragedy, despite many arguing that humans were merely a factor and that disease was a huge influence. This was tested using a metamodel which used complex mathematical models to examine the different factors that could have, and did, lead to the extinction of the Thylacine. Simulations of the model proved that the human influence would have resulted in the extinction of the species, with or without a disease.

I found this incredibly interesting, and not because it proved human fault yet again. Because this technology and this type of model practicality could really prove useful in conservation. Although this study used the model for an extinction that occurred many years ago, it could be very helpful in predicting the future of species that are currently at risk of meeting the same fate as the Tasmanian Tiger. I know that there is currently technology like this being utilized in conservation efforts, but it is not always being used to its full potential. We can gain so much knowledge by using metamodels like this and understanding the complex relationships of an ecosystem. I just get really excited when technology like this starts to really PROVE things, especially about human impact. It's hard to believe, but we still live in a world where people deny climate disruption, human disturbance, and science as a whole. But progress like this can really set aside some of those doubts, and make huge strides in our efforts to help mend the wrong we've done to the Earth and, if nothing else, at least understand it better.  

University of Adelaide (2013, January 30). Disease not a factor in Tasmanian Tiger extinction; Humans to blame for demise of extinct Australian predator. ScienceDaily. Retrieved January 31, 2013, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­/releases/2013/01/130131095310.htm

Climate on the Cape

I grew up in Southern New England, splitting my time between my year-round home in Rhode Island and my  Summer home on Cape Cod. My family owns a cottage in Mashpee, and it remains my favorite place in the world. How can someone NOT love the Cape, really? Anyway, part of what I have always loved about it, being from SNE, is the climate of the Cape. The summers there are beautiful, with wonderfully humid, salty breezes off the Atlantic and the bay that are always cool and refreshing.
The Cape is known for its shape, which has an impact on wind and water patterns on the climate of the area. This shape the result of a recessional moraine from a glacier hundreds of thousands of years ago. Despite being in New England, the Cape has been referred to as a humid subtropical zone rather than a temperate one due to the influences of the Atlantic.
The waters surrounding the cape are influenced by the Canadian Labrador Current, which keep the water of that part of the Atlantic cooler, typically not getting about 70 degree Fahrenheit. This cool water affects the seasonal weather on the Cape, as well. Having spent time there in all four seasons, I can attest to the fact that the Spring weather in Cape Cod is much cooler than other places in SNE. Likewise, the Fall weather is much warmer than other places. That may be my favorite part about the weather there. My family can still go to my cottage well into October, and often times there has been beach days because of the Indian Summer. This is because the water is still warm from the summer and keeps the Cape warm for a bit longer. Another influential impact the Atlantic has is the, although relatively infrequent, huge storms that tend to hit the Cape which can be devastating.
I'm sure there are many other complex influences on the climate of the Cape, as with all places on this Earth, however they are far beyond my understanding at this point. What I do know, however, is that I love Cape Cod and I hope climate disruption does not have too severe an impact on this beautiful place.

Why I'm Here

Hello! My name is Amy Falcão, a third-year senior in the College of Arts and Sciences. I'm an Environmental Science major with a concentration in Conservation Biology and Biodiversity and a minor in Zoology. With that information, it might be fairly easy to assume what my motivations are when taking a class such as Ecosystem Ecology. My goal with my education is to learn how to contribute to the conservation and preservation of all kinds of life on Earth. One of the biggest parts of these potential conservancy efforts is the availability of habitats and ecosystems. Whether trying to conserve flora or fauna, it is critical to have a functional ecosystem that is capable of supporting biodiversity, otherwise the efforts put into saving a species of any kind would be futile. I am currently enrolled in another course with similar objectives as this class, Recovery and Restoration of Altered Ecosystems (ENSC 201). However that course looks at ecosystems in a post-trauma way, and in order to fix a system which has experienced alterations you must first understand the numerous complexities that exist within the ecosystem to get it back to it's most functional and natural state. That is what I am hoping to get out of this class, a better understanding of all of this. Even more important than the simple understanding, is the practical applications of that knowledge. 
Most importantly for me, is the hope for our Earth's future that I sometimes gain in classes such as this. I know that sounds odd, considering most of the classes I have taken at UVM in the ENSC program are very pessimistic. For instance, the video shown in class on the first day was heart-breaking. To someone not as involved in the environmental movement, it seems almost like a death sentence. Which it very well could be. However, taking classes such as this gives me hope that there are solutions out there. Even better than that, I get the knowledge and practice necessary to be a part of these solutions. It is really more than just a major I had to pick when I got to college so I could get a job and live the normal American life. I am truly passionate about these issues, and all of the information I have collected in the past two and half years, and will continue to collect in this class and others, are all vitally important in me being the change I want to see in the world. To fix the problem you must understand it. In the case of the environment, that understanding goes much deeper than most and the complexity is immense. But it is classes like this that I hope to open the door to those complexities that are near unfathomable to many.