Metamodels and the Tasmanian Tiger

I'm a pretty big fan of Science Daily, it's a website I peruse rather frequently and yesterday I came across an article posted that day about a new development in a species extinction. The species in question is the Thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), or often referred to as the "Tasmanian Tiger".

Tasmanian Tigers at Beaumaris Zoo, Hobart c 1918.

(Credit: Image courtesy of University of Adelaide,

reproduced with permission from the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery)

Prior to the European settlement of Tasmania in the early 1800's this beautiful creature was abundant on the island. By the beginning of the 20th Century numbers dwindled drastically due to a bounty placed on the animal, so much so that in 1933 the last wild Thylacine was captured. 

Now, not that this is not a devastating story, as is all stories of extinction, but that is not what struck me about this article. The bulk of this article focuses on the work being done at the University of Adelaide where a study was conducted to essentially prove the cause of the animals extinction. As you can imagine the study proved that humans were the cause of this tragedy, despite many arguing that humans were merely a factor and that disease was a huge influence. This was tested using a metamodel which used complex mathematical models to examine the different factors that could have, and did, lead to the extinction of the Thylacine. Simulations of the model proved that the human influence would have resulted in the extinction of the species, with or without a disease.

I found this incredibly interesting, and not because it proved human fault yet again. Because this technology and this type of model practicality could really prove useful in conservation. Although this study used the model for an extinction that occurred many years ago, it could be very helpful in predicting the future of species that are currently at risk of meeting the same fate as the Tasmanian Tiger. I know that there is currently technology like this being utilized in conservation efforts, but it is not always being used to its full potential. We can gain so much knowledge by using metamodels like this and understanding the complex relationships of an ecosystem. I just get really excited when technology like this starts to really PROVE things, especially about human impact. It's hard to believe, but we still live in a world where people deny climate disruption, human disturbance, and science as a whole. But progress like this can really set aside some of those doubts, and make huge strides in our efforts to help mend the wrong we've done to the Earth and, if nothing else, at least understand it better.  

University of Adelaide (2013, January 30). Disease not a factor in Tasmanian Tiger extinction; Humans to blame for demise of extinct Australian predator. ScienceDaily. Retrieved January 31, 2013, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­/releases/2013/01/130131095310.htm